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The future of international cooperation in space is splitting along lines of power on Earth
Groups of nations with similar strategic interests on Earth are coming together to further their interests in space.
EvenĀ during times of conflict on the ground, space has historically been an arena of collaboration among nations. But trends in the past decade suggest that the nature of cooperation in space is shifting, and fallout from Russiaās invasion of Ukraine has highlighted these changes.
Iām an international relations scholarĀ who studies power distributions in spaceāwho the main players are, what capabilities they possess, and whom they decide to cooperate with. Some scholars predict a future in whichĀ single statesĀ pursue various levels ofĀ dominanceĀ while others foresee a scenario in whichĀ commercial entities bring nations together.
But I believe that the future may be different. In the past few years, groups of nations with similar strategic interests on Earth have come together to further their interests in space, forming what I call āspace blocs.ā
FROM STATE-LED SPACE EFFORTS TO COLLABORATION
The U.S. and the former Soviet Union dominated space activities during the Cold War. Despite tensions on the ground, bothĀ acted carefully to avoid causing crisesĀ and evenĀ cooperated on a number of projects in space.
AsĀ more countriesĀ developed their own space agencies, several international collaborative groups emerged. These include theĀ United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, theĀ United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space,Ā and theĀ Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems.
In 1975, 10 European nations founded theĀ European Space Agency. In 1998, the U.S. and Russia joined efforts to build the International Space Station, which is nowĀ supported by 15 countries.
These multinational ventures were primarily focused on scientific collaboration and data exchange.
THE EMERGENCE OF SPACE BLOCS
The European Space Agency, which now includes 22 nations, could be considered among the first space blocs. But a more pronounced shift toward this type of power structure can be seen also after the end of the Cold War. Countries that shared interests on the ground began coming together to pursue specific mission objectives in space, forming space blocs.
In the past five years, several new space blocs have emerged with various levels of space capabilities. These include theĀ African Space Agency, with 55 member states; theĀ Latin American and Caribbean Space Agency, with seven member states; and theĀ Arab Space Coordination Group, with 12 Middle Eastern member states.
These groups allow for nations to collaborate closely with others in their blocs, but the blocs also compete with one another. Two recent space blocsātheĀ Artemis AccordsĀ and theĀ Sino-Russian lunar agreementāare an example of such competition.
RACE TO THE MOON
TheĀ Artemis AccordsĀ were launched in October 2020. They are led by the U.S. and currently include 18 country members. The groupās goal is to return people to the Moon by 2025 and establish a governing framework for exploring and mining on the Moon, Mars, and beyond. The mission aims to build a research station on the south pole of the Moon with a supporting lunar space station calledĀ the Gateway.
Similarly, in 2019, Russia and China agreed to collaborate on aĀ mission to send peopleĀ to the south pole of the Moon by 2026. This joint Sino-Russian mission also aims to eventually build aĀ Moon base, and place a space stationĀ in lunar orbit.
That these blocs do not collaborate to accomplish similar missions on the Moon indicates that strategic interests and rivalries on the ground have been transposed to space.
Any nation can join the Artemis Accords. But Russia and Chinaāalong with a number of their allies on Earthāhave not done so because some perceive the accords as an effortĀ to expand the U.S.-dominated international orderĀ to outer space.
Similarly, Russia and China plan to open their future lunar research stationĀ to all interested parties, but no Artemis country has expressed interest. The European Space Agency has evenĀ discontinued several joint projectsĀ it had planned with Russia and is instead expanding its partnerships with the U.S. and Japan.
THE IMPACT OF SPACE BLOCS ON THE GROUND
In addition to seeking power in space, countries are also using space blocs to strengthen their spheres of influence on the ground.
One example is theĀ Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization, which was formed in 2005. Led by China, itĀ includesĀ Bangladesh, Iran, Mongolia, Pakistan, Peru, Thailand, and Turkey.
While its broad goal is the development and launch of satellites, the organizationāsĀ major aimĀ is to expand and normalize the use of the Chinese BeiDou navigation systemāthe Chinese version of GPS. Countries that use the system could become dependent on China, as is theĀ case of Iran.
THE ROLE OF PRIVATE SPACE COMPANIES
There has been tremendousĀ growth of commercial activities in spaceĀ in the past decade. As a result, some scholars see a future of space cooperation defined byĀ shared commercial interests. In this scenario, commercial entities act as intermediaries between states, uniting them behind specific commercial projects in space.
However, commercial enterprises areĀ unlikely to dictate future international cooperation in space. According to current international space law, any company that operates in space does soĀ as an extension ofāand under the jurisdiction ofāits home nationās government.
The dominance of states over companies in space affairs has been starkly exemplified through the Ukraine crisis. As a result of state-imposed sanctions, many commercial space companies haveĀ stopped collaboratingĀ with Russia.
Given the current legal framework, it seems most likely that statesānot commercial entitiesāwill continue to dictate the rules in space.
SPACE BLOCS FOR COLLABORATION OR CONFLICT
I believe that going forward, state formations, such as space blocs, will serve as the major means through which states further their national interests in space and on the ground. There are many benefits when nations come together and form space blocs. Space is hard, so pooling resources, manpower, and know-how makes sense. However, such a system also comes with inherent dangers.
History offers many examples showing that the more rigid alliances become,Ā the more likelyĀ conflict is to ensue. The growing rigidity of two alliancesāthe Triple Entente and the Triple Allianceāat the end of the 19th century is often cited as theĀ key triggerĀ of World War I.
A major lesson therein, is that as long as existing space blocs remain flexible and open to all, cooperation will flourish and the world may yet avoid an open conflict in space. Maintaining the focus on scientific goals and exchanges between and within space blocsāwhile keeping political rivalries at bayāwill help to ensure the future of international cooperation in space.
This article is republished fromĀ The ConversationĀ under a Creative Commons license. Read theĀ original article.