What we eat can have an outsize ill effect on the planet. Food production is believed to contribute anywhere fromĀ 20%Ā toĀ 40% of Earthā€™s greenhouse gas emissions, but animal agriculture is responsible for twice as much pollution as plants. Food-industry disruptors argue that their crop of sexy new plant-based alternatives and lab-grown meats will fix this problem.

Yet, despite a myriad of options (Beyond Meat pepperonis on Pizza Hutā€™s pies, Simulate Nuggs, the McDonaldā€™s McPlant sandwich), Americans arenā€™t really adopting plant-based diets in droves just yet. The way their product sales are presented has, at times, given a false impression that they areā€”USA TodayĀ recently ranĀ a storyĀ headlined ā€œRestaurants saved 700K animals with plant-based offerings last year,ā€ with no evidence that those plant-based offerings actuallyĀ displacedĀ meat orders. Beyond Meatā€™s salesĀ have slowed lately, but the bigger issue for this trend is itā€™s not zero-sum; alt-meat sales can grow, but meat sales donā€™t automatically shrink. (Measuring this displacement has actually proven quite challenging.)

However, aĀ new paperĀ from the environmental group World Resources Institute (WRI) suggests maybe thereĀ isĀ one incredibly easy way to get diners to swap meat dishes for plant-based ones, and it involves consumer messaging on restaurant menus.

WRIā€™s researchers invited 6,000 meat eaters to participate in a simulation in which they would order food from a pretend restaurantā€™s online menu. The control group got the normal menu; everybody else got one of 10 prompts that gently ā€œnudgedā€ them to consider eating less meat, emphasizing how doing so could make them healthier and the planet more sustainable.

They used whatā€™s known in behavioral sciences as a ā€œnudge intervention.ā€ Nudge theory is built around the idea that positive reinforcement can influence a personā€™s decision-making. Itā€™s been used in schools to improve student diets. (ThisĀ 2020 paperĀ found it helped get school kids to pick healthier lunches.) Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein wrote a 2008 book about it, calledĀ Nudge, which explains: ā€œNudges are not mandates. Putting fruit at eye level counts as a nudge. Banning junk food does not.ā€

Building on all of this, WRIā€™s team hypothesized that by adding a simple, low-stakes message that encouraged customers to think greener as they debated what food to order could increase peopleā€™s selection of plant-based dishes. According toĀ the paper, their hypothesis turned out to be right, and they report two messages in particular actually doubled the odds that a consumer would end up ordering a vegetarian menu item.

Message 1 falls under the theme, ā€œSmall changes can make a big differenceā€:

Each of us can make a positive difference for the planet. Swapping just one meat dish for a plant-based one saves greenhouse gas emissions that are equivalent to the energy used to charge your phone for two years. Your small change can make a big difference.

Message 2 goes under the theme, ā€œJoin a movement of peopleā€:

90% of Americans are making the change to eat less meat. Join this growing movement and choose plant-based dishes that have less impact on the climate and are kinder to the planet.

The paper notes that the results were impressive: 25.4% of participants who were shown Message 1 picked a vegetarian dish, and 22.5% of those shown Message 2 picked a vegetarian dish, versus 12.4% in the control group. Cynics might describe these two consumer-messaging strategies as ā€œguilt-trippingā€ and ā€œpeer-pressuring,ā€ but to WRI the results support that ā€œthe use of social norms works to positively influence consumersā€™ choices in a variety of domains, including dietary choices.ā€

The team adds that their next step is putting these climate messages on real restaurant menus, to measure the effect on actual hungry customers. They write that they feel optimistic that this ā€œnudgeā€ thing, if done as consumers are about to order, can prove to be ā€œa promising, scalable strategy for encouraging more sustainable dietary choices.ā€

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